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TY - UNPB AU - Adelmann, A. ED - Chrin, Jan ED - Schaa, Volker RW TI - On Uncertainty Quantification in Particle Accelerator Modelling J2 - Proc. of Cyclotrons2016, Zurich, Switzerland, September 11-16, 2016 C1 - Zurich, Switzerland T2 - International Conference on Cyclotrons and Their Applications T3 - 21 LA - english AB - Using a cyclotron based model problem, we demonstrate for the first time [1] the applicability and usefulness of a uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach in order to construct surrogate models for quantities such as emittance, energy spread but also the halo parameter, and construct a global sensitivity analysis together with error propagation and L2 error analysis. The model problem is selected in a way that it represents a template for general high intensity particle accelerator modelling tasks. The presented physics problem has to be seen as hypothetical, with the aim to demonstrate the usefulness and applicability of the presented UQ approach and not solving a particulate problem. The proposed UQ approach is based on sparse polynomial chaos expansions and relies on a small number of high fidelity particle accelerator simulations. Within this UQ framework, the identification of most important uncertainty sources is achieved by performing a global sensitivity analysis via computing the so-called Sobols' indices. [1] A. Adelman, arXiv:1509.08130v6, 2016 PB - JACoW CP - Geneva, Switzerland ER -