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TY - CONF AU - Chitnis, P. AU - Brown, K.A. ED - Corvetti, Lou ED - Riches, Kathleen ED - Schaa, Volker RW TI - Bayesian Reliability Model for Beam Permit System of RHIC at BNL J2 - Proc. of ICALEPCS2015, Melbourne, Australia, 17-23 October 2015 C1 - Melbourne, Australia T2 - International Conference on Accelerator and Large Experimental Physics Control Systems T3 - 15 LA - english AB - Bayesian Analysis provides a statistical framework for updating prior knowledge as observational evidence is acquired. It can handle complex and realistic models with flexibility. The Beam Permit System (BPS) of RHIC plays a key role in safeguarding against the faults occurring in the collider, hence directly impacts RHIC availability. Earlier a multistate reliability model* was developed to study the failure characteristics of the BPS that incorporated manufacturer and military handbook data. Over the course of its 15 years of operation, RHIC has brought forth operational failure data. This work aims towards the integration of earlier reliability calculations with operational failure data using Bayesian analysis. This paper discusses the Bayesian inference of the BPS reliability using a two-parameter Weibull survival model, with unknown scale and shape parameters. As the joint posterior distribution for Weibull with both parameters unknown is analytically intractable, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo methodology with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the inference. Selection criteria for the Weibull distribution, prior density and hyperparameters are also discussed. PB - JACoW CP - Geneva, Switzerland SP - 46 EP - 50 KW - hardware KW - framework KW - collider KW - ion KW - operation DA - 2015/12 PY - 2015 SN - 978-3-95450-148-9 DO - 10.18429/JACoW-ICALEPCS2015-MOD3I01 UR - http://jacow.org/icalepcs2015/papers/mod3i01.pdf ER -